by Kyle Turk
October 6, 2025
As voters in New Jersey and Virginia prepare to head to the polls on Nov. 4, 2025, these races are drawing national scrutiny as bellwethers for party momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms. Here’s a look at the high-stakes contests in both states.
New Jersey: Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli in a competitive open seat
New Jersey features an open-seat contest as Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is term-limited. The Democratic nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, emerged victorious in a crowded primary with about 34% of the vote, defeating well-known figures like Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop.
Sherrill’s Republican challenger is Jack Ciattarelli, a former Assembly member who narrowly lost to Murphy in 2021. Ciattarelli secured the GOP nomination decisively with roughly 68% of the vote in the primary.
Although New Jersey remains a blue state and Democrats continue controlling both legislative chambers, recent statewide races have tightened. In 2021, Murphy won by only 3.2 points, down from his 14-point margin in 2017.
Polling and race ratings currently place New Jersey in the “Leans Democratic” category, suggesting a competitive but Democratic-favored outcome.
Key issues include affordability, especially energy and property costs, and how each candidate responds to national partisan dynamics, including the influence of President Donald Trump.
Virginia: Spanberger looks strong in a likely Democratic tilt
Virginia’s governor’s race pits former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican. The seat is open due to term limits on Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
Polling shows Spanberger consistently ahead, securing mid- to high-single-digit leads. For example, a VCU Commonwealth Poll indicates a 12-point edge (49% vs. 37%), while broader polling averages show margins around Spanberger +7 to +10 points.
Ratings analysts have recently upgraded the Virginia race to “Likely Democratic,” a shift from the earlier “Leans Democratic” designation. The upgrade reflects Spanberger’s fundraising lead, around $27 million compared to her opponent’s $12 million, and voter sentiment, including suburban turnout trends.
Broader implications
These elections serve as early indicators for the parties ahead of midterms. A Democratic hold in Virginia, coupled with a landslide win in New Jersey, could suggest strong organizational strength and resilience in suburban and purple-leaning areas. Conversely, a GOP upset in New Jersey would signal vulnerability for Democrats in traditionally safe states.
Bottom line:
Virginia leans solidly in Democrats’ favor, with Spanberger in a strong position.
New Jersey remains competitive, Democrats maintain an edge, but Republicans see an opening in a tight race.
Kyle Turk is Vice President of Government Affairs with the Natural Products Association in Washington, D.C. You can reach him at kturk@npanational.org.